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谢。。。。。。。。。

The ascendancy of the Net economy

As we cross the threshold into the next century, human society is beginning its move from the industrial economy into the knowledge-based economy. The general trend is that the 21st century will be a new era of the knowledge-based economy. As mentioned in my previous article, the most notable characteristics of this new era of the knowledge-based economy is information-driven economic growth and globalisation. This article will deal with the information aspects of the knowledge-based economy.
In more specific terms, the application of information to the economy is best exemplified in the networking of communication, or the so-called Net economy. This Net refers to the computer network of satellites, optic fibres, cables and telephone lines that connect the whole world. With the click of a mouse, information from the other end of the globe will be transported to your computer screen at the dizzying speed of seven-and-a-half times around the earth per second.
Singapore has an early start in networking. If we deposit a sum of money at a particular POSB branch, we can withdraw our money from any other POSB branches in Singapore. This was an early step in networking. The networks of the future would have greater significance and implications.
Generally, there are two aspects of the Net. One is the networking between businesses and their customers. The other is the networking between individual businesses, or the regional and even global networking between industrial production and scientific research. The examples of the POSB and Internet shopping belong to the first aspect.
From a long-term perspective, Internet shopping is but a low-level aspect of the Net, and it is not likely to become the most important trend. After all, most merchandise are unsuitable for Internet shopping. Besides, if everyone shops on the Net, what will happen to our Orchard Road? Or New York's Broadway? A friend said if he were to force his daughter to shop on the Net instead of letting her shop at Orchard Road, the daughter would rather kill herself.
Therefore, the second aspect of the Net will be more important. Its significance goes beyond that of connecting businesses. There have been reports of simultaneous consultation of doctors from all over the world, surgery on the Net and cooperation in research and development made possible by the Internet. These are early examples of high-level networking.
The president of Intel, producer of the Pentium micro-processors, feels that the new synergy between computers and Net technology will have multiple implications for industry of the future. The sheer power of electronic commerce (e-commerce) will change the face of trade dramatically. Sporting goods company Puma was on the verge of bankruptcy back in 1992. From 1993, Puma began to diffuse its production, logistics and marketing divisions to 80 Net enterprises worldwide, and the results were spectacular. Puma was transformed from a sickly feline into a magnificent beast. The reason for this transformation is that intra- and inter-business electronic links greatly increase the efficiency of production, planning, the collecting of information and data exchange. As the business is rapidly being rationalized, production figures go up while costs come down.
The development of e-commerce may well bring the world into a brand new era of "electronic currency". With the emergence of a phantom electronic currency, everyone of us would be affected. At the moment, developed areas in Europe, the United States and Asia are already studying the possibility of an electronic currency. The main publication of the Association of Electrical Engineers of America even devoted a special edition to electronic currency.
Electronic currency is not only about currency. It refers to an entire finance system on the Net. It includes a virtual numeric currency, an electronic system of withdrawals, transfers and loans, and Smartcards (electronic purses) of all shapes and sizes. The appearance of an electronic currency system implies the emergence of "virtual banks" and "virtual enterprises".
Actually, the rudimentary beginnings of a virtual bank appeared in the US in 1995 as the Security First Network Bank, the world's first Internet bank. Although it is a small and insignificant bank, it represents the trend of the future. In time to come, we may even have to forsake the familiar paper currency.
As the Net pushes the economy ahead rapidly, the economy is also bringing the Net market forward, resulting in the Internet itself becoming the world's largest emerging market. Of course, this is just the beginning. Although there are many companies which made huge profits investing in the Internet market, they tend to be small companies, like Yahoo, which has been basking in the limelight for quite some time. To date, most companies are making losses.
The Net and e-commerce will foster a large number of freelancers, and this will affect social structure in a big way. The competition for technological superiority in the era of the knowledge-based economy will also be more intense. This will definitely promote greater (even global) and more efficient cooperation to maintain competitiveness. The highly efficient research and development work conducted on the worldwide Net is best suited for small and medium enterprises to band together and break the monopolies of the "giants".
It is not hard to see that within this new Net economy, especially with its electronic currency and virtual banks, lurks an imminent danger. The writer will elaborate on this danger after expounding the other characteristic of the era of the knowledge-based economy-- globalization.
经济网络化方兴未艾
在当今跨世纪的年代,人类社会正开始从工业经济这第二阶段开始转入知识经济的第三阶段。21世纪将会是知识经济的新时代。这是一个总趋势。以前有文章也已经谈到,知识经济新时代最显著的特点就是经济发展的信息化和全球化。本文先展望一下信息化这个方面。
具体说,信息化主要是反映在沟通手段的网络化,也就是所谓的网络经济。这网络就是指由卫星、光纤、电缆和电话线路把世界各个角落联系到一起的电脑网络。只要用鼠标一点,在地球另一端的信息马上就会以每秒钟绕地球七周半的光速跑到你的电脑荧光屏上。
新加坡是网络化开始得比较早的地区。我们在储蓄银行一个分行存了钱,可以在该行全岛的任何其他分行取钱,就是网络化的一个初步形式。只是未来的网络化,其意义远为深而广。
网络化大致可以有两个方面:一是企业与客户之间供售关系的网络化。二是各企业之间的业务关系,甚至是工业生产和科学研究在地区范围内,以至于全球范围内的网络化。银行的例子和已出现的网上购物,就属于第一个方面。
从长远看,网上购物仅仅是低层次的网络化,未必会成为主要的趋向。毕竟大多数东西并不便于网上购物。何况,大家都在网上购物,我们的乌节路怎么办,纽约的百老汇怎么办?朋友说,要他的女儿在网上购物而不去乌节路,无异于逼她跳楼。
所以说,网络化的第二个方面将会是主要的。它不仅仅只是商务联系,其深远意义还在更高的层次上。曾报道过的全球医生会诊,网上外科手术和通过网络协作科研,就是这种高层次网络化的先例。
生产奔腾(Pentium)微处理器的英特尔公司总裁格罗夫(Grove)认为,新的电脑和网络技术的结合将会对未来产业带来十倍速的影响。通过网络的电子商务(Electronic Commerce)的惊人威力会使贸易发生巨变。美洲豹体育用品公司(Puma)在92年已濒临破产。93年起美洲豹把生产,后勤和销售分散到全世界八十个电脑联网企业,结果成绩斐然,美洲豹从一只病猫恢复成了真正的猛兽。
其原因是这种企业内部或企业之间的电子网络大大提高了生产、统筹、信息综合和资料交换的效率,使业务迅速合理化,不仅促进了生产,也大幅度地降低了成本。
电子商务的高度发展,很可能会把世界带进一个“电子货币”的崭新时代。电子货币这个幽灵的出现,实实在在会冲击到我们每一个人。目前欧美和亚洲的先进地区都已经开始对电子货币进行研究。今年初,最权威的美国电子电气工程师协会的总刊还专门为电子货币出了一期专辑。
所谓电子货币,它并不只是单单指钱币,而是泛指一个电子网络化的金融系统。它包括真正的电子虚拟数字钱币,电子出纳转帐借贷系统和各种形式的智慧卡(电子钱包)。电子货币系统的出现必然又会反过来导致“虚拟银行”和“虚拟企业”的出现。
其实,这种虚拟银行的雏形,全球第一家网络银行(Security First Network Bank)早在1995年就已经在美国出现。虽然它只是微不足道的一家小银行,却代表了未来的潮流。到时候,我们说不定真的会不得不告别那习惯了的纸币。
在网络化高速地推动经济的同时,经济也反过来推动网络市场,使得网络本身将成为全球最大的新兴市场。当然在目前而言,还仅仅是一个开始。尽管在投资网络市场中赚大钱的公司已经很多,但往往还是一些小公司。如出足风头的雅虎(Yahoo)就是一例。迄今为止,多数公司还是赔钱的。
网络化和电子商务的潮流将会造就大量的自由职业者,对社会的结构会造成深远的影响。知识经济时代的科技竞争也会更激烈。这必定会促进更大更广以至在全球范围进行高效率的协作,以保持竞争力。这种全球网络化的高效率科学研究尤其适合中小型企业联合起来打破“巨人”的垄断。
不难预见到,这种新的网络化经济,特别是电子货币和虚拟银行,潜在着极为深刻的危机。在进一步介绍了知识经济新时代另一个“全球化”的特点以后,笔者将试对其潜在的危机加以探讨。
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第1个回答  2011-03-25
建议加点悬赏,不然给你发的概率不大
我没有,只是给点建议

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