全球气候变暖已是一个不争的事实。气候变化对工业、农业及水资源都造成不同程度的影响。水文模型是评价气候变化对水资源的影响的一个重要工具[1 -5]。陆面模型通常更细致地考虑流域下垫面的土壤、植被及大气之间的水分和能量的交换过程,考虑植被的蒸腾及对大气阻抗等,比水文模型的结构更为复杂,建模难度更大。但是由于陆面模式采用的土壤—植被—大气传输模式使得其与大气的双向耦合性能更好,更适合与气候模式相结合来评价气候变化对流域水文水资源的影响。本文就以我国珠江流域西江为例,构建国际上气候变化对径流的影响评价中应用较为广泛的大尺度分布式陆面 VIC 模型( VariableInfiltration Capacity Model) ,检验其在流域径流模拟中的应用能力。并与区域气候变化影响研究模型PRECIS(Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies)耦合对气候变化情景下珠江流域西江水资源的变化趋势进行预测。
中文:Global warming is an indisputable fact that. Climate change will cause varying degrees of impact on industry, agriculture and water resources. Hydrological model is an important tool (impact assessment of climate change on water resources of 1 - 5). Land surface models are usually more careful consideration of water and energy exchange process between vegetation and the atmosphere of underlying surface soil, river basin, considering the vegetation transpiration and on atmospheric impedance, ratio of hydrological model is more complex, the difficulty of modeling more. But due to the use of land surface model of soil vegetation atmosphere transfer mode makes the atmosphere and the two-way coupling performance is better, more suitable for combination with climate model to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the basin. The Xijiang River in the Pearl River Basin as an example, construction of large scale distributed land surface and VIC model is widely used in the international impact of climate change on runoff evaluation (VariableInfiltration Capacity Model), to test its ability in runoff simulation. And the regional impacts of climate change on the model of PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies) is the variation tendency of water resources under climate change scenarios predict the coupling of Xijiang river.
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