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Question

自06年掀起的一股“基金热”至今，开放式基金在我国迅猛发展，日益显示出它在我国证券市场中的重要地位。在这样的背景之下，为了了解我国开放式基金的运作总体状况，为了给广大投资者以一个明确的投资指导，为了促进我国开放式基金运作能力的提高，对于开放式基金的评价就很有必要了。
本文运用基金评价的两大经典模型对我国04年以前设立的54开放式基金的择时与选股两项能力进行评价，着重讨论不同时段的评价结论是否有差别，不同投资类型基金的评价结论是否有差别，以及不同评价方法的评价结论是否有差别，从中探究出我国开放式基金运作的一些特点以指导实际的投资行为。
总的来说，我国的开放式基金管理人大都具有选股能力，但不显著；并且具备择时能力的管理人很少，所以基金管理人需要在股票选择和时机选择两个方面加强自身的能力。另外，在少部分具有择时能力的管理人中，有一部分择时能力很显著。这样的结论对基金投资中的“随机漫步假说派”发起了一定的挑战（该派投资者认为在实际的选择基金的过程中，应当无针对性地选择基金进行投资，这样才可以获得最好的收益率，费心竭力的苦苦选择是徒劳的。）不过，由于显著的基金股票选择能力和时机选择能力表现出的持续性较差，所以该结论对实际的指导意义可能会减弱。

Answer 1

Raises from 06 years “the fund is hot” until now, the open-end fund in our country rapid development, demonstrates it day by day in our country stock market important position. Under such background, to understand our country open-end fund the operation overall condition, for general investors by an explicit investment instruction, to promote our country open-end fund operation ability enhancement, very much had the necessity regarding open-end fund's appraisal. this article utilizes the fund appraisal two big classical pictures our country 04 years ago sets up 54 open-end funds select when with chooses the stock two abilities to carry on the appraisal, discusses the different time interval emphatically the appraisal conclusion whether to have the difference, invests the type fund differently the appraisal conclusion whether to have the difference, as well as different assessment method appraisal conclusion whether to have the difference, inquired into our country open-end fund operation some characteristics instruct the actual investment behavior. generally speaking, our country's open-end fund supervisors mostly have choose the stock ability, but is not remarkable; When has selects ability supervisor to be very few, therefore the fund supervisor needs chooses two aspects in the stock choice and the opportunity to strengthen own ability. Moreover, when the few parts have selects in ability supervisor, some part selects when ability is very remarkable. Such conclusion “strolled to the fund investment in the hypothesis faction to initiate certain challenge stochastically” (this school of investor to think that in the actual choice fund's process, must not pointed choose the fund to carry on the investment, like this only then might obtain the best returns ratio, took the trouble choice with hardship by might and main is the futile effort. ) but, because remarkable fund stock ability to select and opportunity ability to select displays the endurance is bad, therefore this conclusion will possibly be weaken to the actual guiding sense.