Oil as an important energy source, has a great contribution to economic development, known as the blood of the black gold, industrial and economic growth engine. The years of China's rapid economic development, oil consumption is soaring, but for various reasons, China's oil production has not significantly improved, resulting in increasing oil gap, you need to import crude oil from abroad, deepening oil dependence on the international market and, therefore, volatility in international oil prices will inevitably have a certain impact on China's inflation. Study the effects of fluctuations in international oil prices on inflation in China, on the level of the relevant authorities in order to stabilize prices, easing inflation pressures and formulate relevant policies to be taken is of great reference value and the significance of.
This article select has 2001 to 2011 April of in China consumer price index and international oil prices of data for quantitative analysis, by construction VAR model, by Association whole test and Grainger causal test, results indicates that international oil prices not in China inflation of Grainger causes, in China inflation is international oil prices of Grainger causes, and analysis has its may of causes, last came has conclusions and made has related of policy recommendations to avoiding international oil price fluctuations on in China brings of potential inflation risk.
Petroleum, as a kind of important energy, make enormous contribution to economic development, praised as the engines of the blood and economic growth of deceiving the gold, industry. The forward development that the economy of our country is constantly fast over these years, the volume of consumption of petroleum is thereupon sharp increase too, but for various reasons, the output of crude oil of our country has not been improved notably all the time, cause petroleum gap more and more large, need import the crude oil from foreign countries in a large amount, the dependence ratio of the petroleum of international market is being strengthened constantly, so, the fluctuation of the price of international petroleum will inevitablely cause certain influence on the inflation of our country. Study the impact on inflation of our country of fluctuating of the price of international petroleum, to the relevant authority in order to stabilize the price-level, relieve the inflation pressure and adopt and make the relevant policy and have important reference value and reference meaning.
This selected works pick up of our country consumer price index and international data of oil price in will it be April 2011 to carry on quantitative analysis 2001, through constructing VAR model, through the association exactly examines and Grainger's cause and effect is examined, the result indicates the international oil price is not the reason of Grainger of the inflation of our country, the inflation of our country is a reason of Grainger of the international oil price, and analyzed its possible reason, drew the conclusion finally and put forward the relevant policy recommendations to evade the potential inflation risk that the price of international petroleum fluctuate and bring our country.
Petroleum as a vital source of energy for the development of the economy, there is a huge contribution to the black gold, which is known in the blood, industry and the engine of economic growth. Over the years our economy is growing fast forward, oil consumption has also increased sharply, but for various reasons, my production of crude oil has not been a significant increase in oil shortfall resulting from abroad is increasing, there is a need to import large quantities of crude oil, oil dependence on the international market has deepened, and therefore, the international oil price fluctuations are bound to have a certain impact our inflation. Study of international oil price fluctuations on the effects of inflation, and our country to the relevant authorities in order to stabilize prices level taken to alleviate the pressure of inflation and of relevant policy has an important reference value and relevance.
This article has been selected to April 2011 2001 the Consumer Price Index and the international oil price data for quantitative analysis and through the building, through association var models throughout the testing and Granger causal test results indicate that international oil prices, inflation is not what my reasons for the Grainger, our inflation is a Grainger international oil prices, and to analyze the reasons for their potential causes, and finally arrived at the conclusions and policy recommendations to circumvent international oil price fluctuations on my potential inflation risks.
The petroleum took one kind of important energy, has the tremendous contribution to the economical development, by the reputation the engine which for the coal, the industry blood and the economy grows.These year our country economy unceasingly fast forward development, petroleum consumption quantity also along with it sharp increase, but as a result of all sorts of reasons, our country's crude oil output has not always had the remarkable enhancement, creates the petroleum gap to be more and more big, needs from the overseas massive import crude oil, to deepen unceasingly to the international market petroleum degree of dependency, therefore, the international petroleum price undulation can have certain influence inevitably to our country inflation.Studies the international petroleum price undulation to our country inflation influence, to the proper authorities for the stable price level, the alleviation bloating pressure adopts with the formulation correlation policy has the important reference value and the model significance.
This article has selected carries on the quantitative analysis 2001 to 2011 April our country consumer price index and the international oil price data, through constructs the VAR model, through cooperates the entire examination and the Grainger cause and effect examination, finally indicated the international oil price is not our country inflation Grainger reason, our country inflation is the international oil price Grainger reason, and has analyzed its possible reason, finally has drawn the conclusion and proposed the related policy suggestion dodges the international petroleum price undulation the latent bloating risk which brings to our country.
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