Value retailers like Wal-Mart, Target and Costco were once largely known as the destination for the monthly stock-up trip. But today, they have penetrated the routine weekly shop.
Their strong consumer proposition has created a virtuous cycle for value formats. The growth in both traffic and basket size has given them much higher sales productivity (i.e., sales per square foot). This higher sales productivity results in very attractive store-level economics, which, in turn, lets value players reinvest some of their surplus returns into even lower prices and, contrary to popular wisdom, more labor hours in the store. This, of course, results in improved in-stocks, better merchandise presentation, and thus an even more compelling shopping experience for consumers, leading to even higher sales productivity. Specifically, this cycle enables value retailers, when compared to more traditional competitors, to have lower gross margin percentages (lower prices), but higher gross margin per square foot. Likewise, these value retailers have significantly lower selling costs as a percent of sales (well beyond advantages conferred by lower wage rates), but more FTEs per square foot (more labor hours in the store). Over time, this virtuous cycle will place increasing pressure on traditional retailers who lack similar sales productivity levels, leading to diminishing service and presentation and/or an increasing gap in pricing, reinforcing value players’ consumer advantage.
The strength of this virtuous cycle has significantly improved the economics of these formats. For example, our assessment of leading grocery formats suggests that value formats, like supercenters, have more than doubled their grocery returns on invested capital over the last 10 years, making them comparable to best-in-class retailers. For traditional players, this is creating an enormous competitive disadvantage. In fact, we believe that the retailers which fall significantly behind the leaders in their category on sales productivity will not be long-term successful players.
Looking forward, value retailers must meet aggressive Wall Street expectations for growth that are already embedded in their stock price and account for up to 70 percent of current stock values. As a result, value retailers will forge ahead with rapid network expansion plans, bringing more retailers and store locations under fire. Our consumer research indicates that the biggest barrier to increased usage of value grocery formats is distance from a store, suggesting that value grocers face few barriers to increasing their penetration and continuing to capture share in many markets.
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